Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,936,077$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.22 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,859,701.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 71.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,859,701.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $130,285$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,723.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,723.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,881,644$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $261,750$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(6.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{376,650.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 96.0)}}\) (asimptote \(376,650.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,119$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(928 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,723.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 85.6)}}\) (asimptote \(43,723.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,805$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $107,815$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,014.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(105,014.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,748$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,604.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,604.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,926$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,334$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{354,623.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 184.9)}}\) (asimptote \(354,623.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $770$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(48 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,308.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 114.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,308.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,528$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $38,128$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,245.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 103.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59,245.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $804$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{820.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 59.7)}}\) (asimptote \(820.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,835$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,665$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(159 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{466,814.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 170.7)}}\) (asimptote \(466,814.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $656$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,826.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 220.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,826.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,424$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,972$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(193 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,039.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 106.9)}}\) (asimptote \(46,039.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $981$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.36 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,335.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 83.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,335.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,562$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,027$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,675.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(19,675.4\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $223$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,074$ on 2020-07-06
